Centre for Policy Modelling News

Complexity in the Real World workshop @ ECCS 21012

2012-02-03T12:05:00.000Z

4th&5th September 2012, LUB, Brussels.

See http://crweccs.wordpress.com for details.

Emma Norling back at the CPM

2011-11-23T14:19:00.001Z

I am glad to say Emma Norling will be back working as an RA at the CPM from December.

Stefano Picascia has joined the CPM

2011-11-22T15:10:00.001Z

We are delighted that Stefano Picascia has joined us as a PhD student under the SCID project (http://scid-project.org). He previously worked at CNR in Rome with Mario Paolucci.

Bogdan Werth's Thesis: Uncertainty in IT Outsourcing of Large Financial Institutions

2011-11-22T15:07:00.001Z

Uncertainty in IT Outsourcing of Large Financial Institutions

CPM Report No.:CPM-10-214
By: Bogdan Werth
Suggested citation:
Werth, Bogdan (2010) Uncertainty in IT Outsourcing of Large Financial Institutions, Doctoral Thesis, Manchester MetropolitanUniversity Business School, Manchester, UnitedKingdom.

Abstract

According to the recent industry reports, relativelyfew European banks have benefited from information technologyoutsourcing to the extent originally anticipated by these institutions.Despite the setbacks, most intended to increase outsourcing activitiesin pursuit of reduced labour costs, specialized skills, processexpertise, superior technical resources, and enable a better focus ontheir core business. Whether or not these reasons are justified,outsourcing often has unexpected impacts, both positive and negative,on the operation of an organisation.

Despite the lack of a commonly accepted interpretation of outsourcingoutcomes, the practice of outsourcing in modern corporations isproliferating. This trend has forced both practitioners and academicsto theorize and speculate on the underlying momentum towardsoutsourcing. So far the information technology outsourcing literaturehas mainly focused on the transaction itself, without investigating thestrategic characteristics of the organization leaving out of sight abuilt-in social framework of the firm or social context it is locatedin. This trend captures the widely held perception that organisationalmembers makeoutsourcing decisions based upon an economic rationale andregard social factors as negligible in an overall picture ofoutsourcing.

Agent-based modelling provides us with a tool for examining theimplications of various social and organizational choices withinorganisations. This thesis examines how this can be done in the case ofchoosing to outsource (or not) the information technology needs withinlarge banking organisations. This thesis introduces an alternativeapproach to the investigation of economic theories by means ofevidence-based agent-based social simulation. It suggests and seeks analternative metric for asset specificity with a more qualitativeflavour. Williamson’s transaction cost framework is replicated withautonomous, heterogeneous agents as actors of the modelled outsourcingprocess that can act according to changes in the environment they arelocated in. Social structures emerge from the interaction andinformation exchange between individuals in the market. The modelssucceed in producing a qualitative definition of the term assetspecificity.

The modelling and the fieldwork were carried out by the same party withdata engineering involving stakeholder interactions. A constructive andmodular approach to model design was adopted. The rules for the agents’behaviour were derived partly from the relevant reports and partly fromqualitative insight into the modelled target system. The first researchstage involved gathering of relevant data in collaboration withindustry partners. Based upon data collected from the fieldwork aprototype declarative agent-based coarse grained model was developed.Building a “mock-up” model first was intended in order to point outdata requirements, and help to determine which data is important andwhich can be dismissed. This model allowed the identification of gapsin the current data set that need to be filled in order to develop amore informative model. In subsequent research stages additionalinterviews were conducted in order to fill gaps, which became evidentthrough the analysis of the mock-up model. Exploration and validationof the models’ results happened in a constant feedback-loop, togetherwith domain experts. The constant cross validation with stakeholdersand domain experts facilitated the development of a simulation that wascredible for practitioners, who came to participate in the researchwith sceptical views. This particular case study is presented as anexample of a generalised approach that can be used to examine differentaspects of organisational change.

See: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep214.html

4th Int. Symp. on Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation, Vienna April 2012

2011-11-12T13:55:00.001Z

ABModSim-4

FIRST CALL FOR PAPERS

Fourth International Symposium on

AGENT-BASEDMODELING and SIMULATION

"Untapping thetrue potential

of Agent-BasedModeling"

http://www.lintar.disco.unimib.it/ABModSim/2012

Chairs: Stefania Bandini, Paolo Petta and Giuseppe Vizzari

at the 21th EuropeanMeeting on

Cybernetics andSystems Research

April 10 - 13, Vienna

Submission deadline: December 9, 2011

Introduction

The notions of agents and multi-agent systems have beenadopted for the

modeling of complex systems in the most varied contexts:from social

sciences to urban planning, biology, logistics and production,and many

other more. Agent-based models and simulators are used forresearch as

well as for business/industrial applications. However, theconcepts

behind the term 'agent' are often quite different, as wellas the goals,

phases and practices involved in modeling and simulationactivities.

This leads to different approaches, models, mechanisms,methodologies

and developed computational systems supporting simulation ofthe modeled

realities.

The aim of this workshop, building on the experiences andresults of the

previous editions held in 2006, 2008 and 2010 is to bringtogether

competencies related to agent-based modeling and simulationin different

contexts, first of all to foster cross fertilization butalso on one hand

to understand what are the particular features of this kindof approach

that made it so successful and widespread and, moreimportant, to deeply

explore the features that differentiate it from othercomputational

approaches to the investigation of complex systems, likephysical

approaches and Cellular Automata. The theme for this year'sedition of the

symposium is thus "Untapping the true potential ofAgent-Based Modeling":

the authors are invited to go in the details of the featuresof the

agent-based approach that made them opt for it instead ofdifferent

alternatives (e.g. the possibility to represent, analyze,exploit cognitive

models for agents, to study or employ somepsycho/socio/anthropological

theory; to manage a high level of heterogeneity in theanalyzed system;

to define a comprehensive model of perception, action andinteraction of

autonomous entities situated in an environment).

Next to paper presentations, ample room will be availablefor discussions, taking

advantage of the friendly setting provided by EMCSR.

Topics of Interest

We invite papers on all aspects relating to agent-basedmodeling

and simulation, with particular attention tointerdisciplinary

experiences. Topics of interest include, but are not limitedto,

the following:

· actual MAS-based simulation experiences

· agent-based modeling methodologies

· generic or domain specific MAS models forsimulation

· methodologies for the analysis of MAS-basedsimulation results

· multi-agent models for emergent phenomena andself-organization

· platforms for agent-based modeling andsimulation

· relationships between MAS models and othercomputational models for the simulation of complex systems

· validation of MAS-based simulations

Authors are required to address the following issues

· goals and context of the simulation projects(explanatory or predictive, business or research context)

· the notions and types of agents, internalarchitectures and decision mechanisms used

· the notion of environment used, in which theagents are situated, and the related mechanisms of interaction

· clear-cut working definitions of the basic andemerging concepts employed, grounded in theory/the literature

· a crisp and scientifically validcharacterisation of the research challenge identified or results obtained

Important dates

Deadline for submission: December9, 2011

Notification of Acceptance/Rejection: January 20, 2012

Final Papers: February 17, 2012

Followup publication

As for the previous editions, we aim to publish a collectionof extended

versions of selected accepted and presented papers as aspecial issue

of a renowned international journal.

Program Committee (confirmed, to be extended)

Ana Bazzan - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul -Brazil

Sven Breuckner - Vector Research Center - USA

Paul Davidsson - Malmö University - Sweden

Jan Dijkstra - Eindhoven University of Technology -Netherlands

Bruce Edmonds - Manchester Metropolitan University BusinessSchool - UK

Giorgio Fagiolo - University of Verona - Italy

Joseph Giampapa - Carnegie Mellon University - USA

Nigel Gilbert - University of Surrey - UK

László Gulyás - AITIA International Inc. - Hungary

Xiaolin Hu - Georgia State University - USA

Franziska Klügl - Örebro university - Sweden

Michael North - Argonne National Laboratory - USA

Andrea Omicini - University of Bologna - Italy

Andreas Pyka - University of Augsburg - Germany

Rosaldo Rossetti - University of Porto - Portugal

Majid Sarvi - Monash University - Australia

Andreas Schadschneider - University of Cologne - Germany

Armin Seyfried - Jülich Supercomputing Centre - Germany

Flavio Soares Correa da Silva - University of S. Paulo -Brazil

Daniel Villatoro - Spanish Scientific Research Council -Spain

Re-advertisement of EPSRC PhD studentship at the Centre for Policy Modelling

2011-11-07T21:09:00.001Z

PhD Studentship at the Centre for Policy Modelling
as part of the EPSRC-funded SCID project

(re-advertised due to an appointed candidate dropping out for personal reasons)

Stipend: £13,290 per annum + applicable fees
From time of appointment up to August 2015 maximum

Centre for Policy Modelling
Manchester Metropolitan University Business School

Applications are invited students to work on modelling projects
associated with the EPSRC project: the Social Complexity of
Immigration and Diversity (SCID). This project is in association with
the University of Manchester's Institute for Social Change and its
Department of Theoretical Physics. This is a high-profile and
ambitious project that aims to develop a new approach to using
simulations to gain understanding of important social issues. The
project is from September 2010 to August 2015 so the studentship will
have to be finished by then.

The period of study will involve the development of detailed
agent-based simulations reflecting as much of the evidence as possible
about a case study from one of 3 areas (for details see the project
description):
* Diversity, homophily and social trust
* Socio-political integration
* Socio-economic inequality

The evidence will be provided by experts at the Institute for Social
Change. The central challenge of the PhD will be to integrate as much
of this evidence as possible within Agent-based Simulations. For more
details see the project description at: http://scid-project.org.

Applicants should preferably have a Masters-level degree in a relevant
discipline, preferably with an element of computer science or
computational social science. The candidate should thus have a
reasonable level programming and/or simulation experience. An ability
to learn to program simulations is a must. Knowledge
of sociology in one of the above areas is also an advantage. The
candidate has to be an EU national.

The CPM is one of the few research centres in the world that
specialises on social simulation. Since its inception in 1992 it has
developed its unique blend of trans-disciplinary research, crossing
the areas of: artificial intelligence, complexity science, philosophy
and computational social science (to get an idea of its scope browse
its discussion papers). It has built up a reputation and track-record
over that time being involved in a number of EU and UK projects
(Ocopomo, EMIL, Nania, NeWater, GIACS, CAVES, CCDEW, FIRMA, IMIS).
The CPM is a happy, informal but creative lab. For more information
about the work of the Centre see its website at http://cfpm.org

For informal discussions about the post, contact
Bruce Edmonds on +44 (0) 161 3886 or email to bruce@edmonds.name.

To apply, send a CV with a covering letter to Bruce Edmonds, Centre
for Policy Modelling, MMUBS, Aytoun Building, Aytoun Street, M1 3GH,
UK. Closing date for applications: 9th December 2011.

The University is committed to an Equal Opportunities Policy.

ESSA 2012 will be in Salzburg, Sept 10-14th

2011-10-22T12:02:00.000+01:00

the 8th European Social Simulation Association Conference (ESSA 2012) will take place in Salzburg, Austria, September 10-14, 2012. It will be hosted by the Social Geography Research Group at the University of Salzburg. A first circular will be disseminated in November 2011.

Contact: Andreas Koch (andreas.koch@sbg.ac.at).

In April 2012 the CPM will move to a new building...

2011-10-21T14:33:00.000+01:00

Details about the new building are at:
http://www2.business.mmu.ac.uk/newlocation/

The CPM will be located within a single, L-shaped room, on the second floor in the central column towards the entrance. It is shown in red in the plan of the 2nd floor here:

A 1-year 40% post wtih the CPM...

2011-10-19T16:41:00.000+01:00

... see https://www.jobs.mmu.ac.uk/mmujobsite/VacancyDetail.aspx?VacancyUID=000000006817

For details.

Summary and two keynotes from the Policy Modelling workshop in vienna are available.

2011-09-30T10:45:00.002+01:00

The videos are at:
http://casl.ucd.ie/iru/index.php/eccs-2011-satellite

Summary of the ECCS 2011 SatelliteWorkshop “Policy Modelling”

Thissatellite workshop was about policy modelling with a focus on innovationpolicy. Policy modelling means to identifyareas, which need intervention, to specify the desired state of the targetsystem, to find the regulating mechanisms, policy formation and implementation,and to control and evaluate the robustness of interventions. The methodological difficulty hereby is to bridge the gapbetween policy practice often expressed in qualitative and narrative terms and thescientific realm of formal models. Furthermore, policymaking in complex social systems isno clear-cut cause-effect process but characterised by contingency anduncertainty. To take into accounttechnological, social, economic, political, cultural, ecological and otherrelevant parameters, policy modelling has to be enhanced and supported by newICT-oriented research initiatives. Reviewing the current state-of-the-art ofpolicy context analysis such as forecasting, foresight, backcasting, impactassessment, scenarios, early warning systems, and technology roadmapping, theneed for policy intelligence dealing with complexity becomes more and moreobvious.

Bothdays were opened by invited keynote speakers. On the first day, John Casti,showed in his keynote “Computational modelling and the complexity of policy”how what he termed complexity overload actsas the root cause of extreme events in all social environments, how social moodtheory and agent-based modelling can help us develop tools to anticipate suchevents, and how this approach worked in case studies for the Finnish andScottish policy sponsors within the Game Changers project of the IIASA Xeventsactivity.

This opened the floor for a day on the relation of complexity-basedpolicy domains and ICT. We had presentations reporting concrete experienceswith computational requirements and tools for policy modelling (José JavierAlba Sánchez, Luca Minghini and Gianluca Misuraca), and more exploratorystudies about the possibility to create a general computationalframework which uses evidence-based policy making to encapsulate socio-economicprinciples for creating enduring institutions for smart infrastructuremanagement (Jeremy Pitt). Existing simulation models of technologicalevolution, knowledge dynamics and the emergence of innovation networks wereintroduced and discussed for validation potential to be relevant orstakeholders (Christopher Watts). There has been methodological progress ininterpreting models’ processes and results, but relevance is still largelytheoretical and reliability of validation procedures is incipient (Pablo Lucas). Case studies using specific models forinnovation policy modelling were then presented such as two studies adaptingand developing the SKIN model (SimulatingKnowledge Dynamics in Innovation Networks; http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/SKIN/), a studyfor DG INFSO on ex-ante evaluation of the FP7 successor programme Horizon 2020 (Petra Ahrweiler, Michel Schilperoord, Nigel Gilbert andAndreas Pyka), and a simulation of the Vienna biotech cluster and its socio-economicdynamics, with a special focus on the influence of public research funding onits innovation performance (Manuela Korber and Manfred Paier). To assistpolicymakers with simulation results (e.g. Ozge Kalkan on waste resourcesmarkets), specific attention was drawn to modelling decision making processes(Diane Payne).

InPolicy Modelling there is an uneasy relationship between two different worlds:the "hard" "scientific" world of measurement, data, andanalytic/computer modelling, mostly occupied by academics who see themselves asaiming for the truth behind complex socio-political systems and the"soft" world of "policy practice", where humanunderstanding, communication and pragmatic decision making predominate, mostlyoccupied by pressure groups, advisers, politicians and consultants whose aim isto make acceptably good decisions. Thisdepth of this divide seems to be due to the complexity of human socio-politicalphenomena. It results in a distinction between two communities who are thinkingabout the same problems of policy making, and makes effective combination ofthese approaches difficult. Those in the field have sometimes downplayed thisdivide, but it makes for a real and substantial obstacle. From the "scientific" point of viewthe policy side can seem to deliberately ignore the complexity of thephenomena, to not care about the truth and with a tendency to look forjustifications for decisions that have already been made. From the"policy" side the scientific approach can seem to be politicallynaive, remote, inarticulate, and useless in the sense that they almost neverwill give straight recommendations but rather just abstract explanation in waysthat are often difficult to understand. However both sides are often motivated to try and bridge this divide,sensing that better decisions might be facilitated as a result.

Thesecond day of the workshop focussed on the issues, ways and approaches forbridging this gap. This is timely since complexity science could be a bridgingstone in this exercise, for the first time allowing the possibility of buildingsuch bridges in a well-founded manner. The papers and discussion at theworkshop showed that the topics are very relevant and topical in today’s world,but still largely unresolved. Overcoming these difficulties calls for a deeperattention to human specific features, such as: immediacy, cognition, language,understanding, and interpretation, but it also showed that complexity sciencemight be able to help and thus accommodate these features and, ultimately, tosupport effecting improvements in everyday policy practices.

The paperspresented also showed that the dramatic progress of ICT can help with thisproject, by facilitating the acquisition and immediate use of stakeholdernarratives, allowing their “situated experiences” to directly feedback into thepolicy process. Dave Snowden’s keynotepresentation showed how implicit ground-level feedback techniques, by-passingthe traditional slow modelling process, can be used to improve the guidance ofpolicy by feeing the flow of information from those involved to the policymakes in a more direct manner. This wasechoed in Bruce Edmonds’ analogy between how the control problem in AI/roboticsmirrors that of active policy formation. Sylvie Occelli pointed out thatmodelling might be used as both an activity as well as an artefact, thatmodelling could be a mediator engaging a wider selection of experts andstakeholders in the policy making process. As an activity it can aid the integration between the humanistic worldof understanding, and that of the scientific world of data. As an artefact it can be an element in thepolicy debate alongside other means of expression.

Two of the speakers: GiovanniRabino, and also Magdalena Bielenia-Grajewska chose to examine the importantrole of language in the policy making process, whilst JohnSutcliffe-Braithwaite argued for a meta-modelling language for specifying andtalking about policy and social issues. However, the debate also showed thatthis potential is still underexploited in current policy practice. In thisrespect, much further research was indicated, in particular how policymodelling might be used as a way to build different mixes of argumentative andsyntactic approaches and so improve the production of policies over the longrun.

The CPM is a partner of a new EU network project: "Non-Equilibrium Social Science"

2011-09-15T11:32:00.003+01:00

For details about this project see its website (just now developing) at:
http://nessnetwork.eu/index.php/Main_Page

Policy Modelling Workshop@ECCS 2011 Vienna

2011-09-09T22:36:00.002+01:00

We would like to invite you to attend the satellite “Policy Modelling”, as part of the European Conference on Complex Systems ECCS 2011, on Wednesday, 14th and Thursday 15th of September, 2011, at Aula, Campus University of Vienna, Spitalgasse 2.

The 'Policy Modelling' workshop at the European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS 2011), Vienna, September 2011 will bring together new research on Policy Modelling as it intersects the area of complexity science. Broadly speaking this includes research on how complexity models and simulation can be used to improve and inform the policy making process.

In particular the workshop will focus on three key overlapping themes:

Modelling, Understanding and Managing Innovation
ICT, Large Scale Data and Scalability for Innovation Policy Modelling
Bridging the Gap between formal and policy worlds

For further information on speakers and the programme please see here:
http://casl.ucd.ie/iru/index.php/eccs-2011-satellite

Please circulate to colleagues and researchers you think may be interested.

On behalf of the organisers,

ECCS 2011 Satellite Workshop on Policy Modelling Draft Programme

2011-05-17T14:48:00.027+01:00

September 14^th and 15^th201, ECCS, Vienna.

Web page: http://casl.ucd.ie/iru/index.php/eccs-2011-satellite

ECCS 2011 Satellite Workshop on Policy Modelling Programme Day 1 - September 14^th
8.30 - 9.00	Coffee and Registration
9.00 -10.00	Keynote: John Casti (tbc) Title: TBA
Session 1
10.00 - 10.30	Cunningham “Simulating the impacts of future European ICT research intervention policies”
10.30 – 11.00	Sanchez, Minghini, Misuraca “ICT support to policy modelling: the IPTS experience on managing policy making complexity
*11.00 – 11.30*	*Coffee*
11.30 – 12.00	Ahrweiler, Schilperoord, Gilbert, Pyka “Using network analysis and agent-based simulation for “Fp8” ex ante evaluation”
12.00 – 12.30	Pitt “Intelligent policy automation for open networks and smarter infrastructure”
*12.30 – 14.30*	*Lunch* and Poster presentation (Schrempf, Gao, others)
Session 2
14.30 – 15.00	Korber, Paier “The impact of public research funding in biotechnology: an agent-based simulation”
15.00 – 15.30	Kalkan: “Lack of scarcity and missing markets for waste resources”
15.30 – 16.00	Davis “Simulation modelling and public policy: bringing people back in”
*16.00 – 16.30*	*Coffee*
Session 3
16.30 – 17.00	Watts “Technology space, landscapes and units of knowledge: the issues presented by a core component to simulation models of innovation”
17.00-17.30	Payne “Modelling policy making in a group: empirical applications and challenges for the future”
17.30 – 18.00	Lucas “Issues pertaining to policy assessment and simulation modelling”

*20.00*	*Workshop Dinner at “Palmenhaus”*

Day 2 – September 15^th – Programme
9.00 -10.00	*Keynote*: Dave Snowden Title: TBA

10.00-10.30	Occelli, Semboloni “Bridging expert and lay knowledge in policy making activities: which role(s) for models?”
10.30 - 11.00	Sutcliffe-Braithwaite “Science of computational socio-genomics”
11.00 – 11.30	Edmonds “Four different views of a policy model: an analysis and some suggestions”
*11.30 – 12.00*	*Coffee*
12.00 – 12.30	Rabino “Language of professional, language of scientist: can complexity science can make each other understandable?”
12.30 – 13.00	Bielenia-Grajewska “The communicative aspect of modern policy modeling. The role of metaphors in bridging the gap between the world of figures and the world of feelings”
*13.00*	*Workshop close and Lunch*

Fuller information about ESSA Summer School, Surrey July 2010

2011-04-01T12:04:00.000+01:00

ESSA Summer School 2011

Following the successful first ESSA Summer School on Agent-Based Modelling, held in Brescia, Italy in September 2010, a second Summer School will be held on 18-22 July 2011 at the University of Surrey, Guildford.

The Summer school is aimed at those who have a basic understanding of social simulation and are taking their first steps in agent-based modelling. It is expected that most participants will be actively engaged in developing a simulation model.
The programme will consist of two lectures per day from experienced modellers, together with group sessions led by experienced researchers when participants can discuss their modelling plans and experience. The lectures will focus on the stories behind successful examples of agent-based modelling, and will cover issues from defining a research question to writing effective reports.
Lecturers and researchers will include:

Iqbal Adjali (Unilever, UK)
Edmund Chattoe-Brown (University of Leicester, UK)
Ozge Dilaver Kalkan (University of Surrey, UK)
Bruce Edmonds (Manchester Metropolitan University, UK)
Nigel Gilbert (University of Surrey, UK)
Lynne Hamill (University of Surrey, UK)
Iris Lorscheid (Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg, Germany)
Paul Ormerod (Volterra Consulting, UK)
Mauricio Salgado (University of Surrey, UK)
Flaminio Squazzoni (University of Brescia, Italy)
Pietro Terna (University of Torino, Italy)
Warren Thorngate (Carleton University, Canada)
Klaus G Troitzsch (University of Koblenz, Germany)
Christopher Watts (University of Surrey, UK)

By the end of the Summer School, students can expect to have absorbed a great deal of 'tacit' knowledge about how to go about model building, as well as having had opportunities to discuss their research with experts and peers.

The Summer School welcomes postgraduate students, post-doctoral researchers, and professionals.

Application procedure

Please send a brief CV, a summary of your current research, including a description of modelling planned or achieved and, if you are a postgraduate student a letter of support from your supervisor, as attachments to an email with the subject line "ESSA Summer School application' to lu.yang@surrey.ac.uk by 15 March 2011 at the latest. Notification of acceptance/rejection will be send out by 1 April 2011.

Fees: deadline 15 April, 2011

For university and research institute students, including bed and breakfast (B&B) on the University Campus: £350
For staff of Higher Education institutions, including B&B on the University Campus: £450
For others, not including accommodation: £400
For others, with B&B on the University Campus: £600

Registration fees include lunches, coffee/tea during the day and a social dinner. The University accommodation is in single rooms with shared bathroom.
We do NOT accept late registrations. Registration will not be confirmed unless the payment is received.
Terms: If cancelled before 15 April 2011, no fee will be charged. If cancelled later or in case of no-show, the total price of the registration will be charged.

Bursaries

ASSYST are providing up to five bursaries to assist PhD students, each worth up to €300. To apply, ask your supervisor to include a statement of why you should be awarded a bursary in the letter of support you will send as part of your application. Priority in awarding the bursaries will be given to those who have no alternative means of funding their attendance at the Summer School. Bursaries will be given to the successful applicants at the summer school in July. It cannot be provided at the time of registration.
Bursary for UK applicants only: The UK National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM) is offering training bursaries to UK staff engaged in research, teaching research methods or supervising research. For further information about the bursaries and to apply please see http://www.ncrm.ac.uk/about/funding/training/

Contact

Please send an email to lu.yang@surrey.ac.uk
The Summer school is sponsored by the SIMIAN project, Unilever Plc. and the University of Surrey, to whom we are grateful for their support.

CfP: European Social Simulation Association Confernce 2001, Montpellier - France

2011-03-01T17:31:00.000Z

ESSA 2011

19-23 September 2011
Montpellier - France

www.essa2011.org

Scholars interested in the emergence of social simulation as a methodology in
many research fields and disciplines should come to The 7th European Social Simulation Association Conference. It will be the opportunity to present new results and exchange experience with
leading researchers.

Papers and presentations will focus on a wide range of actual research from very abstract artificial societies to empirical models, from methodological advances to simulation results and their comparison with evidence, from theoretical developments on decisions, networks, collective action, and policies to the concrete lessons of simulations for decision-makers.

A selection of the regular papers will be published in the post-proceedings. Following the tradition of previous ESSA conferences best papers will be published in journal and books.

Please disseminate this message to anyone who might be interested.

Call for Position Papers: Simulating the Social Processes of Science

2011-02-07T10:16:00.001Z

Simulating the Social Processes of Science

Challenging the field of social simulation to produce good models of how science operates

Contex
During the last forty years, a variety of explanatory, exploratory, and metaphorical models of the science system have been used in a number of different fields. As a consequence, this topic has appeared at a variety of different conferences, resulting in a string of rather isolated papers. We believe the time is right to try and consolidate and focus these efforts – to attempt serious models that address the link between the micro-behaviour of scientists with the global patterns of science.

Aim
To stimulate interest in simulating the social processes that occur within science, particularly to motivate some agent-based modellers into producing models of the inter-scientist processes that contribute to the phenomenon we call science.

Strategy

Invite a number of position papers, describing the features and issues they would like to see in a social simulation of science.
Publish these as a collection in the Forum Section of JASSS (Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation – the main journal for social simulators), with a foreword challenging social simulators to address these issues.
Organise and run a residential workshop 1-2 years in 2012 open to researchers to present and discuss their simulations, with a few philosophers and sociologists present.
Publish a special issue or book of revised papers on this topic based on the simulations presented at the workshop.

What we are asking of you
To write a position paper for this project. It should be directed to the social simulation community, with an aim of: stimulating them to develop models of science, guiding them to some of the important properties, issues and evidence that they should address in their simulations, and possibly indicating which aspects might (or might not) be amenable to such an approach. The simulations will probably include both cognitive and social aspects of science and scientists. We are open to all viewpoints on the efficacy and nature of science, but would appreciate a focus on areas where you think simulation can contribute to our understanding.

So please write a short essay, with a guideline of 3000 words, to be delivered in a Microsoft Word readable format (.doc .docx .rtf .odt) and emailed to bruce@edmonds.name by the 1st April 2011. Please contact us if you have any questions, or suggestions.

Co-Chairs/Co-Organisers

Petra Ahrweiler, Professor of Technology and Innovation Management and Director of the Innovation Research Unit at University College Dublin. http://casl.ucd.ie/people/petra.ahrweiler
Nigel Gilbert, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Centre for Research in Social Simulation, University of Surrey, United Kingdom, and General Editor of JASSS. http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/staff/ngilbert
Bruce Edmonds, Director of the Centre for Policy Modelling and Senior Research Fellow at the Manchester Metropolitan University. http://bruce.edmonds.name
Andrea Scharnhorst, Senior Research Fellow at the DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)/ e humanities groups at the Royal Netherlands Academy for Arts and Sciences http://virtualknowledgestudio.nl/andrea-scharnhorst/

2nd ESSA Summer School: July 2011

2011-02-03T18:20:00.001Z

Following the successful first ESSA Summer School on Agent-Based Modelling, held in Brescia, Italy in September 2010, a second Summer School is planned for 18-22 July 2011 at the University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom.

The Summer School is aimed at those who have a basic understanding of social simulation and are taking their first steps in agent-based modelling. It is expected that most participants will be actively engaged in developing a simulation model.

The programme will consist of lectures from experienced modellers, together with group sessions led by tutors when participants can discuss their modelling plans and experience. The lectures will focus on the stories behind successful examples of agent-based modelling, and will cover issues from defining a research question to writing effective reports.

Lecturers will include:

• Iqbal Adjali (Unilever, UK)
• Edmund Chattoe-Brown (University of Leicester, UK)
• Bruce Edmonds (Manchester Metropolitan University, UK)
• Nigel Gilbert (University of Surrey, UK)
• Paul Ormerod (Volterra Consulting, UK)
• Flaminio Squazzoni (University of Brescia, Italy)
• Pietro Terna (University of Torino, Italy)
• Klaus G Troitzsch (University of Koblenz, Germany)

By the end of the Summer School, students can expect to have absorbed a great deal of 'tacit' knowledge about how to go about model building, as well as having had opportunities to discuss their research with experts and peers.

The Summer School welcomes postgraduate students, post-doctoral researchers, and professionals.

The School is located at the University of Surrey. The campus overlooks Guildford, a market town in the Surrey countryside with good links to London Heathrow and London Gatwick airports, and about 50 kms from the centre of London. See http://www.surrey.ac.uk/about/visitors/travel/

Application procedure
Please send (a) a brief CV, (b) a summary of your current research, including a description of modelling planned or achieved and, if you are a postgraduate student (c) a letter of support from your supervisor, as attachments to an email with the subject line "ESSA Summer School application" to by 15 March 2011 at the latest. Notification of acceptance/rejection will be sent by 1 April 2011.

Fees
• For university and research institute students, including bed and breakfast (B&B) on the University Campus: £350
• For staff of Higher Education institutions, including B&B on the University Campus: £450
• For others, not including accommodation: £400
• For others, with B&B on the University Campus: £600
All registration fees include lunches, coffee/tea during the day and a social dinner. The University accommodation is in single rooms with shared bathroom. These fees need to be paid by 15 April, 2011.

Bursaries
ASSYST http://www.assystcomplexity.eu/ are providing up to five bursaries to assist PhD students, each worth up to €300. To apply, ask your supervisor to include a statement about why you should be awarded a bursary in the letter of support you will send as part of your application. Priority in awarding the bursaries will be given to those who have no alternative means of funding their attendance at the Summer School.

Bursary for UK applicants only: The UK National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM) is offering training bursaries to UK staff engaged in research, teaching research methods or supervising research. For further information about the bursaries and to apply please see http://www.ncrm.ac.uk/about/funding/training/ . This scheme is not open to PhD students.

The Summer school is sponsored by the SIMIAN project, Unilever plc, ASSYST and the University of Surrey, to whom we are grateful for their support.

Further details are available on the Summer School website: http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essasummerschool2011/

Papers/programme at World Congress on Social Simulation Announced

2010-08-06T15:36:00.000+01:00

Read the titles and programme at:
https://www.conftool.net/wcss2010/sessions.php

New Paper: Context and Social Simulation

2010-06-05T18:52:00.002+01:00

This paper has some overlap with the previous one, but has a different argument at its core and is aimed at a different audience.

CPM-10-210
Context and Social Simulation - Bruce Edmonds

Introdution

Context is everywhere in the human social and cognitive spheres but it is often implicit and unnoticed. Some possible reasons for this will be sketched below. However, when one is involved in trying to understand and model the social and cognitive realms it becomes an important factor. This paper is an analysis of the role and effects of context on social simulation and a call for it to be squarely faced by the social simulation community.
This paper starts with brief review of some the different kinds of context and what they are. It then considers two, essentially different issues: firstly the issue of the context of a model and secondly the issue of including aspects of context-recognition and dependency in agents within simulations. I do realise that putting both of these in one paper is inviting confusion, but I am keen to air both issues. Thus the rest of this paper is in three sections:
·         Section 2 is about context in general, including some of the different conceptions of it and its difficulties;
·         Section 3 discusses the context of a simulation;
·         and Section 4 talks about the representation of context within a simulation.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep210.html

New Paper: Complexity and Context-Dependency

2010-05-22T13:10:00.001+01:00

Complexity and Context-Dependency

CPM Report No.: 10-209
By: Bruce Edmonds
Date: 20th May 2010

To be presented at the Eurpean Conference on Complex Systems 2010 (ECCS), Lisbon, September 2010.

Abstract:

It is argued that given the “anti-anthropomorphic” principle, that the universe is not structured for our benefit, that modelling trade-offs will necessarily mean that many of our models will be context-specific. The context heuristic, that divides the processing into rich, fuzzy context-recognition and crisp, conscious reasoning and learning is outlined. The consequences of accepting the impact of this human heuristic in the light of the necessity of accepting context-specificity in our modelling of complex systems is examined. In particular the development of “islands” or related model clusters rather than over-arching laws and theories. It is suggested that by accepting and dealing with context (rather than ignoring it) we can push the boundaries of science a little further.

Accessible as CPM Report 209:

http://cfpm.org/cpmrep209.html

Two PhD Studentships at the CPM available

2010-05-14T13:35:00.003+01:00

(as part of the SCID project)

Stipend: £13,290 per annum + applicable fees
1+3 years or 3 years deending on experience

Centre for Policy Modelling
Manchester Metropolitan University Business School

Applications are invited for 2 phd students to work on modelling projects associated with the EPSRC project: the Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity (SCID). This project is in association with the University of Manchester's Institute for Social Change and its Department of Theoretical Physics. This is a high-profile and ambitious project that aims to develop a new approach to using simulations to gain understanding of important social issues.

The project will last for 5 years starting 1 September 2010.

The period of study will involve the development of detailed agent-based simulations reflecting as much of the evidence as possible about a case study from one of 3 areas (fof details see the project description):

Diversity, homophily and social trust
Socio-political integration
Socio-economic inequality

The evidence will be provided by experts at the Institute for Social Change. The central challenge of the PhD will be to integrate as much of this evidence as possible within Agent-based Simulations. For more details see the project description at: http://cfpm.org/scid/SCID-Description.html

Applicants should preferably have a Masters-level degree in a relevant discipline, preferably with an element of computer science or computational social science. The candidate should thus have a reasonable level programming and/or simulation experience. An ability to learn to program simulations in Java/Repast is a must. Knowledge of sociology in one of the above areas is also an advantage. The candidate has to be an EU national.

The CPM is one of the few research centres in the world that focuses on social simulation. Since its inception in 1992 it has developed its unique blend of trans-disciplinary research, crossing the areas of : artificial intelligence, complexity scicence, philosophy and computational social science (to get an idea of its scope browse its discussion papers). It has built up a reputation and track-record over that time being involved in a number of EU and UK projects (Ocopomo, EMIL, Nania, NeWater, GIACS, CAVES, CCDEW, FIRMA, IMIS). The CPM is a happy, informal, fairly chaotic but, we believe, very creative lab. For more information about the work of the Centre see its website at http://cfpm.org

For informal discussions about the post, contact Bruce Edmonds on +44 (0) 161 3886 or email to bruce@edmonds.name.

To apply, send a CV with a covering letter to Bruce Edmonds, Centre for Policy Modelling, MMUBS, Aytoun Building, Aytoun Street, M1 3GH, UK.

The University is committed to an Equal Opportunities Policy.

FuturICT report summary: can 1 Billion € stop the (next) financial crisis?

2010-04-28T15:51:00.000+01:00

One Billion Euros to Unleash the Power of Information

ScienceDaily (Apr. 28, 2010) — Humanity faces enormous challenges ranging from financial and economic instability to environmental destruction and climate change, all linked directly to our inability to manage -- and often even to understand the nature of -- our collective activities and their consequences....

See article at: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100427081051.htm

Produced by the FuturICT project: http://www.futurict.eu/

Server still down...

2010-04-15T12:08:00.000+01:00

...the university assigned us a new set of static IP addresses and I think have not updated the firewall access.

sigh!

Sever is down again...

2010-04-11T17:32:00.002+01:00

...I don't know why yet.

Thesis: Shah Jamal Alam, Understanding Social Complexity in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Case Study in Rural South Africa

2010-04-02T12:17:00.002+01:00

Understanding Social Complexity in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Case Study in Rural South Africa

(Shah Jamal Alam's Doctoral Thesis)
Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep208.html

This thesis aims at understanding the impact of HIV/AIDS and socioeconomic stressors in Sub-Saharan Africa. We present an agent-based simulation model of the social impacts of HIV/AIDS in villages in the Sekhukhune district of the Limpopo province in South Africa. AIDS in the Sub-Saharan region has not only affected individual’s health but its prevalence has a long-term implication on the economic development of the society. The impact of the disease relates to other stresses, such as food insecurity, high climate variability, market fluctuations, and variations in support from government and non-government sources. The model developed in this thesis focuses on decisions made at the individual and household level. The model development process is driven by evidence, which is made available through our project partners at the Stockholm Environment Institute (Oxford) and other external sources. The model has gone through several iterations, especially regarding agent's decision procedures. This whole modelling process has resulted in the modellers being able to ask new questions about the underlying problem, with successive iterations. It has contributed to identifying the gaps in the existing knowledge of the domain and thus helping to understand the problem with better precision. Simulation results reported in this thesis suggest a number of hypotheses concerning social and public health policies. They also suggest that agent-based social simulation is a potential tool in better understanding of this complex interplay of issues. Another contribution of this research is capturing the notion of overlapping social networks at different levels in modelling human social systems. One of the implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is that it increases the burden on traditional support networks or safety nets. This thesis looks towards techniques for identifying structural changes in dynamical networks that may be useful in better describing this effect.

Unpacking Public Discussion – developing an open forest of political argument

2010-04-01T17:17:00.000+01:00

A proposal and contribution to Crossroad: a "Participative Roadmap for ICT Research in Electronic Governance and Policy Modelling".

Available as: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep207.html

CfP: World Congress on Social Simulation, Sept. 2010, Kassel, Germany

2010-02-27T09:29:00.001Z

The 3rd World Congress on Social Simulation will take place on September 6-9, 2010 at Center for Environmental Systems Research at the University of Kassel, Germany.

All details at: www.wcss2010.org

Paper dealine: 1st May

The WCSS series is a joint collaboration of the regional international professional organizations:

the European Social Simulation Association – ESSA;
the Computational Social Science Society - CSSS;
the Pacific Asia Association for Agent Based Social Systems Science – PAAA

4th International Conference on Self-Adaptive and Self-Organizing Systems

2010-02-23T17:23:00.002Z

SASO 2010: The 4th International Conference on Self-Adaptive and Self-Organizing Systems
Budapest, Hungary, September 27-October 1, 2010.

Submission deadline: April 19th (abstract), April 26th (full paper)

The topics of interest to SASO include, but are not limited to:
    * Applications and experiences with self-* systems
    * Design and engineering for self-* systems (self-organization, self-adaptation, self-management, self-monitoring, self-tuning, self-repair, self-configuration, etc.)
    * Management and control of self-* systems
    * Robustness and dependability of self-* systems
    * Control of emergent properties in self-* systems
    * Biologically, socially, and physically inspired self-* systems
    * Theories, frameworks and methods for self-* systems

Details at: http://www.saso-conference.org/

Two recent CPM Papers

2010-02-21T16:03:00.005Z

CPM-09-204 Disaggregating Quality Judgements - Bruce Edmonds
CPM-09-205 Agent-Based Social Simulation and its necessity for understanding socially embedded phenomena - Bruce Edmonds

SCIVE 2010 - Social Complexity of Informal Value Exchange

2010-02-04T08:03:00.001Z

The first international workshop exploring the social aspects of informal value transfer
at the European Complex Systems Society Conference,
Lisbon, September 15^th or 16^th, 2010.

his workshop aims to promote inquiry into social phenomena that involve value-exchange, and in particular on networks for credit and value transfer, under the effect of recent technological and societal change. In particular an individual-based simulation approach to take into account their social complexity.

Informal value transfer and credit networks involve people or institutions providing credit or value transfer services based on social trust rather than laws and contracts. Such networks constitute a complex system that have been relatively unstudied yet have a significant impact on people's lives. ICT advances – for example the reduction of social distance and the advent of economically-feasible micro transactions – allow for significant improvements in reach and quality of these networks and might allow the release of presently untapped social resources.

We aim to contribute to understanding and to change in networks for credit and value transfer by individual based simulation. Many aspects of human cooperation involve some exchange of value and are the traditional subject matter of the field of economics.

However this exchange often involves many social processes and mechanisms other than those usually considered by economists, including: social norms, altruism, reputation, trust, group membership, friendship, kinship, identity, status etc. These can only be understood by modelling them at the individual level (with possible analytic models later).

The above artefacts are going to play an ever more important role thanks to the removal of barriers and to individual empowerment allowed by the growth of communication networks. As a consequence, the conversion of the above processes and mechanisms to their monetary value could grow more and more difficult, and the financial institutions that move and manage money could get reshaped. Two contrasting forces are at work here. On one hand, the ease with which value and credit can be transferred worldwide favours large, powerful organizations, whose aims grow less and less related to the territory. On the other hand, individuals can exert a stronger control on their own (small-scale) resources, creating a potential for peer finance, where mental constructs can play a very important role. We already see the effects of this second force in the rise of micro business and micro finance.

This workshop invites contributions of individual-based models of these aspects of society that involve value exchange or coordination. The economic processes of price, supply/demand and varieties of economic rationality (e.g. bounded rationality, optimisation etc.) are already well studied – this workshop aims to concentrate on the other social aspects involved.

For details see: http://cfpm.org/scive

First ESSA Summer School in Social Simulation

2010-02-04T07:59:00.002Z

There will be a first ESSA summer school in social simulation at Brescia in Italy. 13-17 September 2010. Organised by Flaminio Squazzoni of the University of Brescia, so it is bound to be good!

See
http://www.eco.unibs.it/essasummer/

CPM's server is temporarily down

2010-01-21T13:45:00.002Z

The server was apparently compromised and has been shut down whilst it is checked and cleaned. This will also affect the sites http://bruce.edmonds.name and http://davidhales.com

We are installing a new server from scratch and hope it will be up and running soon.

VISIONEER - Envisioning a Socio Economic Knowledge Collider

2009-12-07T10:33:00.001Z

A 7th Framework EU Project on Future Directions for Social Simulation

State of the art
More and more often social systems feature crises leading to unstable and dangerous situations that are characterized by abrupt and large-scale changes. Such disruptions are very hard to predict with any precision and even harder to control. The reasons behind the recent failures must be pursued in the intrinsic inadequacy of the currently established theories in social sciences and moreover in the inefficacy of both the tools and the mechanisms for shaping new underlying assumptions capable to push forward a more rapid and more effective innovation process.

The Vision
Visioneer is a European project aiming to reach a better, quantitative understanding of complex socio-economic systems. The final purpose is developing the concept of a Social Knowledge Collider, thereby creating optimal conditions to unleash the potential of real multi-disciplinary projects involving social scientist, economists, computer scientists, physicists, biologists, system scientists, and engineers whose complementary special knowledge would collide and create new kinds of concepts, as particle supercolliders create new kinds of particles.

Contribute Now at: http://www.visioneer.ethz.ch/

New Project: SCID - the Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity

2009-11-20T11:11:00.002Z

We have just heard that the CPM has got a significant grant from the EPSRC, under its "Complexity in the Real World" funding initiative. This is a 5 year project with the Department of Theoretical Physics and the Institute for Social Change, both at the University of Manchester, down the road.

The likely start date is 1st September 2010.

Visions of the Future of Social Simulation

2009-09-11T14:27:00.002+01:00

We are nearing the end of the writing and editing of the handbook on "Simulating Social Complexity" which is to be published in the new year. See http://cfpm.org/ssc-handbk.html for details.

In the epilogue we would like to look forward a bit to guesses about the future trends, issues and techniques in social simulation. Thus we are asking for contributions consisting of people's opinions on this.

If you are interested, please send a 1 page statement of an area or two that you think will become increasingly important within the next 10 years. There should be already a few indications of the trend or issue you describe, but it should not be already much researched. We will edit these all into the final epilogue to the handbook.

All contributions will be acknowledged, but contributors will not get a whole free copy of the handbook -- sorry!

Please send in word or RTF format to cpm@mmu.ac.uk by October 2nd 2009.

Talks Online from Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

2009-07-30T15:22:00.002+01:00

That happened University of Manchester, 6^th – 8^th July 2009.

Go to: http://www.theory.physics.manchester.ac.uk/complexitymeeting/

Click on >> Registration >> Overview >> Paper

Then on each talk.

(Sorry no easier way)

Bruce

International Workshop on 150 Years after Darwin

2009-06-10T16:14:00.001+01:00

Darwin'09

International Workshop on 150 Years after Darwin:
From Molecular Evolution to Language
Palma de Mallorca, November 23 - 27, 2009

http://ifisc.uib-csic.es/darwin09/

Two hundred years since the birth of Charles Darwin and a hundred and ﬁfty years since the publication of ”On the Origin of Species”, the theory of evolution is now a conceptual cornerstone in a wide number of areas of research outside its original ﬁeld of application. Evolutionary biologists, linguists, physicists, economists, and social scientists nowadays use the notions of evolution and adaptation in their research. In each of those areas, the mechanisms behind the relevant dynamics (stochastic appearance of mutants, cultural innovations or social strategies, inheritance or spread of a new variant, and selection through competition) take a speciﬁc form that, nonetheless, shapes the structure and organisation of each system in a way that can be recognised as arising from ”evolutionary dynamics” in its broadest sense. These anniversaries seem an ideal opportunity to bring together researchers from the variety of disciplines which now use the evolutionary paradigm, to review progress, learn from each other and initiate new collaborations.

Invited Speakers

W. Brian Arthur

Santa Fe Institute, USA

Fernando Baquero

Centro de Investigación Biomédica, CSIC, Spain

William Croft

University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA

Bernard Derrida

École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France

Ulf Dieckmann

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria

Barbara Drossel

TU Darmstadt, Germany

Bruce Edmonds

Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, UK

John Foster

University of Queensland, Australia

Sergey Gavrilets

University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

Herbert Gintis

University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA

Peter Hammerstein

Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany

Michael Lässig

Universität zu Köln , Germany

Antonio Lazcano

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

Andrés Moya

Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva, València, Spain

Luca Peliti

Università di Napoli, Italy.

Maxi San Miguel

IFISC, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Karl Sigmund

University of Vienna, Austria

Gerald Silverberg

University of Maastricht, the Netherlands

Ricard V. Solé

Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain

Peter F. Stadler

University of Leipzig, Germany

Luc Steels

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium

Arne Traulsen

Max-Planck-Institut für Evolutionsbiologie, Plön, Germany

Eric Westhof

Institut de Biologie Moléculaire et Cellulaire, Strasbourg, France

Ulrich Witt

Max-Planck-Institut für Ökonomik, Jena, Germany

For any information about the Workshop, please email:
darwin09@ifisc.uib-csic.es

Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

2009-05-15T17:51:00.006+01:00

Three-day meeting

University of Manchester, 6-8 July 2009

A 3-day meeting exploring how physicists can contribute to the biological, economic and social sciences, aimed principally at graduate students and established physicists who are interested in learning about these novel applications.

On each day there will be a different theme, with one introductory lecture, three research talks, and ending with an overview lecture summarising the state of the subject, giving perspectives on current research and looking to the future.

The talks will be 50 minutes plus 10 minutes of questions.

Venue:
All talks will be held in the Niels Bohr Common Room in the School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

More information from: http://www.theory.physics.manchester.ac.uk/complexitymeeting/

The meeting is essentially free, i.e. $5 day registration (compulsory) but you get lunch for that!

CPM Report 09-203: Understanding Observed Complex Systems – the hard complexity problem

2009-04-24T17:11:00.000+01:00

CPM Report No.: 09-203
By: Bruce Edmonds
Date: 22nd April 2009

Abstract

Two kinds of problem are distinguished: the first of finding processes which produce complex outcomes from the interaction of simple parts, and the second of finding which process resulted in an observed complex outcome. The former I call the easy complexity problem and the later the hard complexity problem. It is often assumed that progress with the easy problem will aid process with the hard problem. However this assumes that the “reverse engineering” problem, of determining the process from the outcomes is feasible. Taking a couple of simple models of reverse engineering, I show that this task is infeasible in the general case. Hence it cannot be assumed that reverse engineering is possible, and hence that most of the time progress on the easy problem will not help with the hard problem unless there are special properties of a particular set of processes that make it feasible. Assuming that complexity science is not merely an academic “game” and given the analysis of this paper, some criteria for the kinds of paper that have a reasonable chance of being eventually useful for understanding observed complex systems are outlined. Many complexity papers do not fare well against these critieria.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep203.html

CPM Report 09-202: Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena

2009-04-24T17:09:00.000+01:00

CPM Report No.: 09-202
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena, AISB 09 Symposium: Killer robots or friendly fridges: the social understanding of Artificial Intelligence, Edinburgh, Scotland, April 2009.

Date: March 16th 2009

This paper discusses the current usefulness and implications of developing research on agent-based Simulation Models of Social Phenomena (SMSP) beyond purely academic, hobbyist or educational purposes. Design, development and testing phases are discussed along with issues evidence-driven modellers often face whilst collecting, analysing and translating quantitative and qualitative empirical data into social simulation models. Methodological recommendations are discussed in light of the importance of developing research besides its own theory.


Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep202.html

CPM Report 09-201: Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups to Conventional Social Behaviour

2009-04-24T17:08:00.001+01:00

CPM Report No.: 09-201
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups and their Conventional Social Behaviour. Second CFPM - ETH EMIL fieldwork report, Manchester, England, March 2009. (Segundo Reporte, Autonomous University of Mexico, PROIMMSE).

Date: March 16th 2009

This second report synthesises results from studying the effects of social conventions
within the internal organisation and evolution of micro-finance groups, also known as
solidarity groups, at a microfinance institution (MFI) in southern Mexico. According
to our publishing agreement, their precise identity and location is omitted. The next
section contains interpretations of all collected data and graphs, drawing on answers
from the second questionnaire to credit advisors and five financial databases. I thank
the MFI director, their team, economist Federico Morales, anthropologist Ignacio García
and Chris Catlin, along with CFPM and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology for the
support provided for this research.

Available at:  http://cfpm.org/cpmrep201.html

CfP: ESSA 2009 Conference 14-18 Sept 2009

2009-02-04T11:51:00.006Z

Call for Papers for:

ESSA 2009

The 6th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Conference

14-18 September 2009, Univ. of Surrey, Guilford (just outside London), UK.

Deadline for submissions: 14th April, 2009

http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009

ESSA 2009 will, like its predecessors, attract the best papers from across the world, describing the newest and most significant social simulation work. These will cover: human, animal and artificial societies, and apply a wide range of techniques. Social Simulation seems to be at a "tipping point" between revolutionary and normal science where it is introducing more rigour into its methods.

Come to participate in the formation of a new science!

The invited speakers are:

Mark Bedau, Professor of Philosophy and Humanities, Reed College and Editor of Artificial Life
Jim Doran, Emeritus Professor of the Univ. of Essex and one of the founders of Social Simulation
Tim Kohler, Professor in the Dept. of Anthropology, Washington State University and Santa Fe

Submission

Reasonably mature papers on all aspects of social simulation will be carefully and anonymously considered – however most papers will (1) describe an individual/agent-based computer simulation (2) exhibit the outcomes of running the simulation in more than a cursory way and (3) make some comparison of these with either: evidence from, or other models of, social phenomena (human, animal or artificial). If you are in doubt as to the relevance of a paper, you may email the Scientific Chair for his opinion (see below), however the decisions about relevance will be made by the Programme Committee. See the conference website for details as to submission procedure.

All the accepted papers will be included in the ESSA 2009 electronic proceedings. The best accepted papers will be published in a separate post-proceedings.

The Venue

The conference will be held at the University of Surrey, Guildford. The Sociology Department there is rated as one of the top centres for sociology research in the UK. It is just outside London in the pretty town of Guilford, near Heathrow Airport and easily accessible from Gatwick.

Organizing Committee

The conference chair is Nigel Gilbert, University of Surrey, UK

Other members of the organising committee are:

Edmund Chattoe, University of Leicester, UK
Bruce Edmonds, Manchester Metropolitan University, UK (Scientific Chair)
Fred Amblard, University of Toulouse, France
Flaminio Squazzoni, University of Brescia, Italy
Lu Yang, University of Surrey, UK (Admin)

There is a large and varied program committee representing the top social simulation academics from across the world, covering a large variety of different views and approaches. For a list of PC members see the website.

Contact

For queries about the organisation of the conference, bookings, travel etc. see http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009/contactUs.php and for the submission of papers, the reviewing process or the programme email: essa2009@cfpm.org

CPM Report 08-199: Bootstrapping Knowledge about Social Phenomena using Simulation Models - Bruce Edmonds

2008-11-21T11:38:00.001Z

Formidable difficulties face anyone trying to model social phenomena using a formal system, such as a computer program. The differences between formal systems and complex, multi-facetted and meaning-laden social systems are so fundamental that many will criticise any attempt to bridge this gap. Despite this, there are those who are so bullish about the project of social simulation that they appear to believe that simple computer models, that are also useful and reliable indicators of how aspects of society works, are not only possible but within our grasp. This paper seeks to pour water on such optimism but, on the other hand, show that useful computational models might be ‘evolved’. In this way it is disagreeing with both naive positivist and relativistic post-modernist positions. However this will require a greater ‘selective pressure’ against models that are not grounded in evidence, ‘floating models’, and will result in a plethora of complex and context-specific models.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep199.html

CPM Report 08-198: System Farming - Bruce Edmonds

2008-11-21T11:36:00.000Z

We discuss the implications of emergence and complexity for the management of complex distributed systems (CDS). We argue that while formal design methods may play a role, they have distinct limitations where it comes to complex systems. There are similar limitations to statistical methods. Thus we must look to other ways of managing these systems, involving a shift from: prior one-off design towards post hoc continual management; from predictive abstract theory towards detailed descriptive modelling to guide monitoring and aid diagnosis; from system optimisation to simple disaster prevention; from single models to many models; from single well-designed mechanisms to multiple overlapping mechanisms; from individual to collective effort. We call upon those in the SASO community to explicitly reject those tenets that are only useful with simple systems. In other words, when trying to understand CDS, become more like zoologists rather than mathematicians and when managing them becoming more like farmers than engineers (at least in the classic sense).

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep198.html

CPM Report 08-197: Emotions in social interactions: unfolding emotional experience - Claudia Marinetti, Penny Moore, Pablo Lucas dos Anjos and Brian P

2008-11-21T11:35:00.002Z

In the unremitting complexity of social life, emotions play a key role in defining and regulating our
relationships with others and, more generally, with the environment surrounding us. Our emotional reactions to other people influence how those others react to us, and to a certain extent how future encounters will develop. At the same time, our own emotional behaviour is shaped by others’ thoughts and deeds. Although emotions undeniably have personal and subjective aspects, they are usually experienced in a social context and acquire their significance in relation to this context (see also the “Socially situated affective systems” chapter, WP7, in this handbook).

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep197.html

CPM Report 08-196: "Death to . . . !": On Opinion Dynamics in Conict-Torn Afghanistan - Armando Geller and Nanda Wijermans

2008-11-21T11:34:00.001Z

Crowds and riots in contemporary conflict are only little understood. However, it is fairly well understood that the emergence of crowds and riots in conflict regions has a severe and lasting impact on the security situation. On the basis of an existing and cross-validated model of Afghan power structures we demonstrate what role opinion dynamics play in the evolution of a critical social condition preceding the emergence of crowds and riots. It is explained how information on security incidences spreads within an artificial society and when such a turning point is reached. The influence of network structures on the spread of information and the role opinion leaders play is explored. We find that small world network structures lead to dynamics that are volatile, unpredictable and performative in nature. It is also shown that opinion leaders have a catalytic effect on the information distribution processes. These findings bear importance for policy makers and practitioners in the field.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep196.html

CPM Report 08-195: Policy Modelling: Problems and Prospects - Scott Moss

2008-11-21T11:32:00.002Z

Policy modelling is the application of agent based social simulation to the analysis of social policies. While agent based modelling has been seen as a promising technique for policy analysis in a number of applications such as water demand and land use management, it has not become an important tool of business and public policy analysis more widely. The purpose of this paper is systematically to set policy modelling in a wider scientific context than has been attempted previously and to use that context to explore the general conditions in which policy modelling is appropriate and the problems to be faced in convincing working policy analysts why and when it is the most appropriate tool of analysis available to them.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep195.html

Call for Silly Papers: the 200th CPM Discussion paper

2008-10-24T11:28:00.002+01:00

The Centre for Policy Modelling Discussion paper series has almost reached number 200. So, in the spirit of paper number 100 (http://cfpm.org/cpmrep100.html) or the Annals of Improbably Research (http://improbable.com), we are inviting submissions for paper number 200.

The rules are as follows:

1. All submissions have to be recognisably a social simulation paper. However unlike other social simulation papers ;-), we are looking for papers that are silly, satirical, funny, nonsensical, off-beat or just plain weird (they do not have to be *all* of these things but at least one).

2. All submissions must be received by bruce@edmonds.name by the end of Friday 21st November in one of the following formats: txt, pdf, doc or html. Late submissions will be lost with a probability that is proportional to some very large number.

3. Submissions may be of any length. Papers that do not adhere to this requirement will be rejected out of hand.

4. The papers will be objectively judged by a panel of independent experts.

5. The opinions of those experts will be studiously ignored. The papers will then be judged by Bruce Edmonds, Shah Alam, David Hales and V. Lewskogski whose opinions shall be final (if sampled over a short enough time period).

6. The selected paper (or papers) will be published to world-wide acclaim as CPM Report number 200 (see http://cfpm.org/cpmreps.html).

7. Post -Modernist papers pretending to be silly social simulation papers to try and fool us (ala Sokal) will be physically deconstructed.

8. The recycling of papers is strongly encouraged on environmental grounds, so dig out all your past, rejected papers that you thought were sensible, seminal and serious.

9. The winner will be announced here at http://cfpm-news.blogspot.com/ and elsewhere.

Enjoy!

Bruce Edmonds, Shah Alam, David Hales, V. Lewscogski

Stream on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science" at ESSA 2009

2008-09-30T13:31:00.003+01:00

Bruce Edmonds of the CFPM will be the Scientific Chair of the 6th Confrence of the European Social Simulation Association (ESSA 2009) -- see: http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009/

At this it is planned that there will be a special stream of papers on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science", where papers that discuss simulations that try to capture the inter-personal or social processes that occur between scientists (in the broadest sense) will be presented.

If you are interested, please contact me on bruce@edmonds.name

1/2 PhD positions available at the Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester, UK

2008-08-29T11:26:00.001+01:00

One or two studentships are available at the Centre for Policy Modelling (CFPM), starting immediately (or when the candidates can start). The Studentship will be £12K pa plus fees for 3 years. Only EU students can apply. The course of study will be centered around agent-based social simulation, which is the core of the CFPM's work. Preference will be given to those who already have some research experience (e.g. research-based masters), but other candidates will be considered. To get a flavour of our work see the CFPM's website at cfpm.org, especially the discussion papers. Past PhD students include: Luis Isquierdo, Shah Jamal Alam, Olivier Barthelemy, Richard Taylor, and Oswaldo Terán.

If you are interested, in the first instance contact either Bruce Edmonds (bruce@edmonds.name) or Scott Moss (scott@cfpm.org). We hope to fill these positions by December 2008.

The CPM Blog

2008-07-09T15:10:00.001+01:00

This blog will replace the CPM-announcements mailing list. Since its a LOT easier to manage! Future projects, jobs, studentships, news, papers, calls etc. will be announced here (and possibly SIMSOC).

Bruce

Centre for Policy Modelling News

Complexity in the Real World workshop @ ECCS 21012

Emma Norling back at the CPM

Stefano Picascia has joined the CPM

Bogdan Werth's Thesis: Uncertainty in IT Outsourcing of Large Financial Institutions

Abstract

4th Int. Symp. on Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation, Vienna April 2012

Introduction

Topics of Interest

Authors are required to address the following issues

Important dates

Followup publication

Program Committee (confirmed, to be extended)

Re-advertisement of EPSRC PhD studentship at the Centre for Policy Modelling

ESSA 2012 will be in Salzburg, Sept 10-14th

In April 2012 the CPM will move to a new building...

A 1-year 40% post wtih the CPM...

Summary and two keynotes from the Policy Modelling workshop in vienna are available.

The CPM is a partner of a new EU network project: "Non-Equilibrium Social Science"

Policy Modelling Workshop@ECCS 2011 Vienna

ECCS 2011 Satellite Workshop on Policy Modelling Draft Programme

ECCS 2011 Satellite Workshop on Policy Modelling Programme

Fuller information about ESSA Summer School, Surrey July 2010

Application procedure

Fees: deadline 15 April, 2011

Bursaries

Contact

CfP: European Social Simulation Association Confernce 2001, Montpellier - France

ESSA 2011

Call for Position Papers: Simulating the Social Processes of Science

2nd ESSA Summer School: July 2011

Papers/programme at World Congress on Social Simulation Announced

New Paper: Context and Social Simulation

Introdution

New Paper: Complexity and Context-Dependency

Two PhD Studentships at the CPM available

(as part of the SCID project)

FuturICT report summary: can 1 Billion € stop the (next) financial crisis?

One Billion Euros to Unleash the Power of Information

Server still down...

Sever is down again...

Thesis: Shah Jamal Alam, Understanding Social Complexity in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Case Study in Rural South Africa

Unpacking Public Discussion – developing an open forest of political argument

CfP: World Congress on Social Simulation, Sept. 2010, Kassel, Germany

4th International Conference on Self-Adaptive and Self-Organizing Systems

Two recent CPM Papers

SCIVE 2010 - Social Complexity of Informal Value Exchange

First ESSA Summer School in Social Simulation

CPM's server is temporarily down

VISIONEER - Envisioning a Socio Economic Knowledge Collider

New Project: SCID - the Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity

Visions of the Future of Social Simulation

Talks Online from Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

International Workshop on 150 Years after Darwin

Invited Speakers

Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

Three-day meeting

University of Manchester, 6-8 July 2009

CPM Report 09-203: Understanding Observed Complex Systems – the hard complexity problem

Abstract

CPM Report 09-202: Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena

CPM Report 09-201: Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups to Conventional Social Behaviour

CfP: ESSA 2009 Conference 14-18 Sept 2009

CPM Report 08-199: Bootstrapping Knowledge about Social Phenomena using Simulation Models - Bruce Edmonds

CPM Report 08-198: System Farming - Bruce Edmonds

CPM Report 08-197: Emotions in social interactions: unfolding emotional experience - Claudia Marinetti, Penny Moore, Pablo Lucas dos Anjos and Brian P

CPM Report 08-196: "Death to . . . !": On Opinion Dynamics in Conict-Torn Afghanistan - Armando Geller and Nanda Wijermans

CPM Report 08-195: Policy Modelling: Problems and Prospects - Scott Moss

Call for Silly Papers: the 200th CPM Discussion paper

Stream on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science" at ESSA 2009

1/2 PhD positions available at the Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester, UK

The CPM Blog