New Project: SCID - the Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity

We have just heard that the CPM has got a significant grant from the EPSRC, under its "Complexity in the Real World" funding initiative. This is a 5 year project with the Department of Theoretical Physics and the Institute for Social Change, both at the University of Manchester, down the road.

The likely start date is 1st September 2010.

Visions of the Future of Social Simulation

We are nearing the end of the writing and editing of the handbook on "Simulating Social Complexity" which is to be published in the new year. See http://cfpm.org/ssc-handbk.html for details.

In the epilogue we would like to look forward a bit to guesses about the future trends, issues and techniques in social simulation. Thus we are asking for contributions consisting of people's opinions on this.

If you are interested, please send a 1 page statement of an area or two that you think will become increasingly important within the next 10 years. There should be already a few indications of the trend or issue you describe, but it should not be already much researched. We will edit these all into the final epilogue to the handbook.

All contributions will be acknowledged, but contributors will not get a whole free copy of the handbook -- sorry!

Please send in word or RTF format to cpm@mmu.ac.uk by October 2nd 2009.

Talks Online from Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

That happened University of Manchester, 6^th – 8^th July 2009.

Go to: http://www.theory.physics.manchester.ac.uk/complexitymeeting/

Click on >> Registration >> Overview >> Paper

Then on each talk.

(Sorry no easier way)

Bruce

International Workshop on 150 Years after Darwin

Darwin'09

International Workshop on 150 Years after Darwin:
From Molecular Evolution to Language
Palma de Mallorca, November 23 - 27, 2009

http://ifisc.uib-csic.es/darwin09/

Two hundred years since the birth of Charles Darwin and a hundred and fifty years since the publication of ”On the Origin of Species”, the theory of evolution is now a conceptual cornerstone in a wide number of areas of research outside its original field of application. Evolutionary biologists, linguists, physicists, economists, and social scientists nowadays use the notions of evolution and adaptation in their research. In each of those areas, the mechanisms behind the relevant dynamics (stochastic appearance of mutants, cultural innovations or social strategies, inheritance or spread of a new variant, and selection through competition) take a specific form that, nonetheless, shapes the structure and organisation of each system in a way that can be recognised as arising from ”evolutionary dynamics” in its broadest sense. These anniversaries seem an ideal opportunity to bring together researchers from the variety of disciplines which now use the evolutionary paradigm, to review progress, learn from each other and initiate new collaborations.

Invited Speakers

W. Brian Arthur

Santa Fe Institute, USA

Fernando Baquero

Centro de Investigación Biomédica, CSIC, Spain

William Croft

University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA

Bernard Derrida

École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France

Ulf Dieckmann

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria

Barbara Drossel

TU Darmstadt, Germany

Bruce Edmonds

Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, UK

John Foster

University of Queensland, Australia

Sergey Gavrilets

University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

Herbert Gintis

University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA

Peter Hammerstein

Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany

Michael Lässig

Universität zu Köln , Germany

Antonio Lazcano

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

Andrés Moya

Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva, València, Spain

Luca Peliti

Università di Napoli, Italy.

Maxi San Miguel

IFISC, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Karl Sigmund

University of Vienna, Austria

Gerald Silverberg

University of Maastricht, the Netherlands

Ricard V. Solé

Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain

Peter F. Stadler

University of Leipzig, Germany

Luc Steels

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium

Arne Traulsen

Max-Planck-Institut für Evolutionsbiologie, Plön, Germany

Eric Westhof

Institut de Biologie Moléculaire et Cellulaire, Strasbourg, France

Ulrich Witt

Max-Planck-Institut für Ökonomik, Jena, Germany

For any information about the Workshop, please email:
darwin09@ifisc.uib-csic.es

Introductory Lectures on Aspects of Complexity

Three-day meeting

University of Manchester, 6-8 July 2009

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A 3-day meeting exploring how physicists can contribute to the biological, economic and social sciences, aimed principally at graduate students and established physicists who are interested in learning about these novel applications.

On each day there will be a different theme, with one introductory lecture, three research talks, and ending with an overview lecture summarising the state of the subject, giving perspectives on current research and looking to the future.

The talks will be 50 minutes plus 10 minutes of questions.

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Venue:
All talks will be held in the Niels Bohr Common Room in the School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

More information from: http://www.theory.physics.manchester.ac.uk/complexitymeeting/

The meeting is essentially free, i.e. $5 day registration (compulsory) but you get lunch for that!

CPM Report 09-203: Understanding Observed Complex Systems – the hard complexity problem

CPM Report No.: 09-203
By: Bruce Edmonds
Date: 22nd April 2009

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Abstract

Two kinds of problem are distinguished: the first of finding processes which produce complex outcomes from the interaction of simple parts, and the second of finding which process resulted in an observed complex outcome. The former I call the easy complexity problem and the later the hard complexity problem. It is often assumed that progress with the easy problem will aid process with the hard problem. However this assumes that the “reverse engineering” problem, of determining the process from the outcomes is feasible. Taking a couple of simple models of reverse engineering, I show that this task is infeasible in the general case. Hence it cannot be assumed that reverse engineering is possible, and hence that most of the time progress on the easy problem will not help with the hard problem unless there are special properties of a particular set of processes that make it feasible. Assuming that complexity science is not merely an academic “game” and given the analysis of this paper, some criteria for the kinds of paper that have a reasonable chance of being eventually useful for understanding observed complex systems are outlined. Many complexity papers do not fare well against these critieria.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep203.html

CPM Report 09-202: Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena

CPM Report No.: 09-202
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena, AISB 09 Symposium: Killer robots or friendly fridges: the social understanding of Artificial Intelligence, Edinburgh, Scotland, April 2009.

Date: March 16th 2009

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This paper discusses the current usefulness and implications of developing research on agent-based Simulation Models of Social Phenomena (SMSP) beyond purely academic, hobbyist or educational purposes. Design, development and testing phases are discussed along with issues evidence-driven modellers often face whilst collecting, analysing and translating quantitative and qualitative empirical data into social simulation models. Methodological recommendations are discussed in light of the importance of developing research besides its own theory.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep202.html

CPM Report 09-201: Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups to Conventional Social Behaviour

CPM Report No.: 09-201
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups and their Conventional Social Behaviour. Second CFPM - ETH EMIL fieldwork report, Manchester, England, March 2009. (Segundo Reporte, Autonomous University of Mexico, PROIMMSE).

Date: March 16th 2009

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This second report synthesises results from studying the effects of social conventions
within the internal organisation and evolution of micro-finance groups, also known as
solidarity groups, at a microfinance institution (MFI) in southern Mexico. According
to our publishing agreement, their precise identity and location is omitted. The next
section contains interpretations of all collected data and graphs, drawing on answers
from the second questionnaire to credit advisors and five financial databases. I thank
the MFI director, their team, economist Federico Morales, anthropologist Ignacio García
and Chris Catlin, along with CFPM and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology for the
support provided for this research.

Available at:  http://cfpm.org/cpmrep201.html

CfP: ESSA 2009 Conference 14-18 Sept 2009

Call for Papers for:

ESSA 2009

The 6th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Conference

14-18 September 2009, Univ. of Surrey, Guilford (just outside London), UK.

Deadline for submissions: 14th April, 2009

http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009

ESSA 2009 will, like its predecessors, attract the best papers from across the world, describing the newest and most significant social simulation work. These will cover: human, animal and artificial societies, and apply a wide range of techniques. Social Simulation seems to be at a "tipping point" between revolutionary and normal science where it is introducing more rigour into its methods.

Come to participate in the formation of a new science!

The invited speakers are:

• Mark Bedau, Professor of Philosophy and Humanities, Reed College and Editor of Artificial Life
• Jim Doran, Emeritus Professor of the Univ. of Essex and one of the founders of Social Simulation
• Tim Kohler, Professor in the Dept. of Anthropology, Washington State University and Santa Fe

Submission

Reasonably mature papers on all aspects of social simulation will be carefully and anonymously considered – however most papers will (1) describe an individual/agent-based computer simulation (2) exhibit the outcomes of running the simulation in more than a cursory way and (3) make some comparison of these with either: evidence from, or other models of, social phenomena (human, animal or artificial). If you are in doubt as to the relevance of a paper, you may email the Scientific Chair for his opinion (see below), however the decisions about relevance will be made by the Programme Committee. See the conference website for details as to submission procedure.

All the accepted papers will be included in the ESSA 2009 electronic proceedings. The best accepted papers will be published in a separate post-proceedings.

The Venue

The conference will be held at the University of Surrey, Guildford. The Sociology Department there is rated as one of the top centres for sociology research in the UK. It is just outside London in the pretty town of Guilford, near Heathrow Airport and easily accessible from Gatwick.






Organizing Committee

The conference chair is Nigel Gilbert, University of Surrey, UK

Other members of the organising committee are:

• Edmund Chattoe, University of Leicester, UK
• Bruce Edmonds, Manchester Metropolitan University, UK (Scientific Chair)
• Fred Amblard, University of Toulouse, France
• Flaminio Squazzoni, University of Brescia, Italy
• Lu Yang, University of Surrey, UK (Admin)

There is a large and varied program committee representing the top social simulation academics from across the world, covering a large variety of different views and approaches. For a list of PC members see the website.

Contact

For queries about the organisation of the conference, bookings, travel etc. see http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009/contactUs.php and for the submission of papers, the reviewing process or the programme email: essa2009@cfpm.org

CPM Report 08-199: Bootstrapping Knowledge about Social Phenomena using Simulation Models - Bruce Edmonds

Formidable difficulties face anyone trying to model social phenomena using a formal system, such as a computer program. The differences between formal systems and complex, multi-facetted and meaning-laden social systems are so fundamental that many will criticise any attempt to bridge this gap. Despite this, there are those who are so bullish about the project of social simulation that they appear to believe that simple computer models, that are also useful and reliable indicators of how aspects of society works, are not only possible but within our grasp. This paper seeks to pour water on such optimism but, on the other hand, show that useful computational models might be ‘evolved’. In this way it is disagreeing with both naive positivist and relativistic post-modernist positions. However this will require a greater ‘selective pressure’ against models that are not grounded in evidence, ‘floating models’, and will result in a plethora of complex and context-specific models.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep199.html

CPM Report 08-198: System Farming - Bruce Edmonds

We discuss the implications of emergence and complexity for the management of complex distributed systems (CDS). We argue that while formal design methods may play a role, they have distinct limitations where it comes to complex systems. There are similar limitations to statistical methods. Thus we must look to other ways of managing these systems, involving a shift from: prior one-off design towards post hoc continual management; from predictive abstract theory towards detailed descriptive modelling to guide monitoring and aid diagnosis; from system optimisation to simple disaster prevention; from single models to many models; from single well-designed mechanisms to multiple overlapping mechanisms; from individual to collective effort. We call upon those in the SASO community to explicitly reject those tenets that are only useful with simple systems. In other words, when trying to understand CDS, become more like zoologists rather than mathematicians and when managing them becoming more like farmers than engineers (at least in the classic sense).

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep198.html

CPM Report 08-197: Emotions in social interactions: unfolding emotional experience - Claudia Marinetti, Penny Moore, Pablo Lucas dos Anjos and Brian P

In the unremitting complexity of social life, emotions play a key role in defining and regulating our
relationships with others and, more generally, with the environment surrounding us. Our emotional reactions to other people influence how those others react to us, and to a certain extent how future encounters will develop. At the same time, our own emotional behaviour is shaped by others’ thoughts and deeds. Although emotions undeniably have personal and subjective aspects, they are usually experienced in a social context and acquire their significance in relation to this context (see also the “Socially situated affective systems” chapter, WP7, in this handbook).

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep197.html

CPM Report 08-196: "Death to . . . !": On Opinion Dynamics in Conict-Torn Afghanistan - Armando Geller and Nanda Wijermans

Crowds and riots in contemporary conflict are only little understood. However, it is fairly well understood that the emergence of crowds and riots in conflict regions has a severe and lasting impact on the security situation. On the basis of an existing and cross-validated model of Afghan power structures we demonstrate what role opinion dynamics play in the evolution of a critical social condition preceding the emergence of crowds and riots. It is explained how information on security incidences spreads within an artificial society and when such a turning point is reached. The influence of network structures on the spread of information and the role opinion leaders play is explored. We find that small world network structures lead to dynamics that are volatile, unpredictable and performative in nature. It is also shown that opinion leaders have a catalytic effect on the information distribution processes. These findings bear importance for policy makers and practitioners in the field.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep196.html

CPM Report 08-195: Policy Modelling: Problems and Prospects - Scott Moss

Policy modelling is the application of agent based social simulation to the analysis of social policies. While agent based modelling has been seen as a promising technique for policy analysis in a number of applications such as water demand and land use management, it has not become an important tool of business and public policy analysis more widely. The purpose of this paper is systematically to set policy modelling in a wider scientific context than has been attempted previously and to use that context to explore the general conditions in which policy modelling is appropriate and the problems to be faced in convincing working policy analysts why and when it is the most appropriate tool of analysis available to them.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep195.html

Call for Silly Papers: the 200th CPM Discussion paper

The Centre for Policy Modelling Discussion paper series has almost reached number 200. So, in the spirit of paper number 100 (http://cfpm.org/cpmrep100.html) or the Annals of Improbably Research (http://improbable.com), we are inviting submissions for paper number 200.

The rules are as follows:

1. All submissions have to be recognisably a social simulation paper. However unlike other social simulation papers ;-), we are looking for papers that are silly, satirical, funny, nonsensical, off-beat or just plain weird (they do not have to be *all* of these things but at least one).

2. All submissions must be received by bruce@edmonds.name by the end of Friday 21st November in one of the following formats: txt, pdf, doc or html. Late submissions will be lost with a probability that is proportional to some very large number.

3. Submissions may be of any length. Papers that do not adhere to this requirement will be rejected out of hand.

4. The papers will be objectively judged by a panel of independent experts.

5. The opinions of those experts will be studiously ignored. The papers will then be judged by Bruce Edmonds, Shah Alam, David Hales and V. Lewskogski whose opinions shall be final (if sampled over a short enough time period).

6. The selected paper (or papers) will be published to world-wide acclaim as CPM Report number 200 (see http://cfpm.org/cpmreps.html).

7. Post -Modernist papers pretending to be silly social simulation papers to try and fool us (ala Sokal) will be physically deconstructed.

8. The recycling of papers is strongly encouraged on environmental grounds, so dig out all your past, rejected papers that you thought were sensible, seminal and serious.

9. The winner will be announced here at http://cfpm-news.blogspot.com/ and elsewhere.

Enjoy!

Bruce Edmonds, Shah Alam, David Hales, V. Lewscogski

Stream on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science" at ESSA 2009

Bruce Edmonds of the CFPM will be the Scientific Chair of the 6th Confrence of the European Social Simulation Association (ESSA 2009) -- see: http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009/

At this it is planned that there will be a special stream of papers on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science", where papers that discuss simulations that try to capture the inter-personal or social processes that occur between scientists (in the broadest sense) will be presented.

If you are interested, please contact me on bruce@edmonds.name

1/2 PhD positions available at the Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester, UK

One or two studentships are available at the Centre for Policy Modelling (CFPM), starting immediately (or when the candidates can start). The Studentship will be £12K pa plus fees for 3 years. Only EU students can apply. The course of study will be centered around agent-based social simulation, which is the core of the CFPM's work. Preference will be given to those who already have some research experience (e.g. research-based masters), but other candidates will be considered. To get a flavour of our work see the CFPM's website at cfpm.org, especially the discussion papers. Past PhD students include: Luis Isquierdo, Shah Jamal Alam, Olivier Barthelemy, Richard Taylor, and Oswaldo Terán.

If you are interested, in the first instance contact either Bruce Edmonds (bruce@edmonds.name) or Scott Moss (scott@cfpm.org). We hope to fill these positions by December 2008.

The CPM Blog

This blog will replace the CPM-announcements mailing list. Since its a LOT easier to manage! Future projects, jobs, studentships, news, papers, calls etc. will be announced here (and possibly SIMSOC).

Bruce