CPM Report 09-203: Understanding Observed Complex Systems – the hard complexity problem

CPM Report No.: 09-203
By: Bruce Edmonds
Date: 22nd April 2009

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Abstract

Two kinds of problem are distinguished: the first of finding processes which produce complex outcomes from the interaction of simple parts, and the second of finding which process resulted in an observed complex outcome. The former I call the easy complexity problem and the later the hard complexity problem. It is often assumed that progress with the easy problem will aid process with the hard problem. However this assumes that the “reverse engineering” problem, of determining the process from the outcomes is feasible. Taking a couple of simple models of reverse engineering, I show that this task is infeasible in the general case. Hence it cannot be assumed that reverse engineering is possible, and hence that most of the time progress on the easy problem will not help with the hard problem unless there are special properties of a particular set of processes that make it feasible. Assuming that complexity science is not merely an academic “game” and given the analysis of this paper, some criteria for the kinds of paper that have a reasonable chance of being eventually useful for understanding observed complex systems are outlined. Many complexity papers do not fare well against these critieria.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep203.html

CPM Report 09-202: Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena

CPM Report No.: 09-202
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Usefulness of Simulating Social Phenomena, AISB 09 Symposium: Killer robots or friendly fridges: the social understanding of Artificial Intelligence, Edinburgh, Scotland, April 2009.

Date: March 16th 2009

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This paper discusses the current usefulness and implications of developing research on agent-based Simulation Models of Social Phenomena (SMSP) beyond purely academic, hobbyist or educational purposes. Design, development and testing phases are discussed along with issues evidence-driven modellers often face whilst collecting, analysing and translating quantitative and qualitative empirical data into social simulation models. Methodological recommendations are discussed in light of the importance of developing research besides its own theory.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep202.html

CPM Report 09-201: Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups to Conventional Social Behaviour

CPM Report No.: 09-201
By: Pablo Lucas

Lucas, Pablo; Relating Financial characterisation of Microfinance Groups and their Conventional Social Behaviour. Second CFPM - ETH EMIL fieldwork report, Manchester, England, March 2009. (Segundo Reporte, Autonomous University of Mexico, PROIMMSE).

Date: March 16th 2009

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This second report synthesises results from studying the effects of social conventions
within the internal organisation and evolution of micro-finance groups, also known as
solidarity groups, at a microfinance institution (MFI) in southern Mexico. According
to our publishing agreement, their precise identity and location is omitted. The next
section contains interpretations of all collected data and graphs, drawing on answers
from the second questionnaire to credit advisors and five financial databases. I thank
the MFI director, their team, economist Federico Morales, anthropologist Ignacio García
and Chris Catlin, along with CFPM and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology for the
support provided for this research.

Available at:  http://cfpm.org/cpmrep201.html

CfP: ESSA 2009 Conference 14-18 Sept 2009

Call for Papers for:

ESSA 2009

The 6th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Conference

14-18 September 2009, Univ. of Surrey, Guilford (just outside London), UK.

Deadline for submissions: 14th April, 2009

http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009

ESSA 2009 will, like its predecessors, attract the best papers from across the world, describing the newest and most significant social simulation work. These will cover: human, animal and artificial societies, and apply a wide range of techniques. Social Simulation seems to be at a "tipping point" between revolutionary and normal science where it is introducing more rigour into its methods.

Come to participate in the formation of a new science!

The invited speakers are:

• Mark Bedau, Professor of Philosophy and Humanities, Reed College and Editor of Artificial Life
• Jim Doran, Emeritus Professor of the Univ. of Essex and one of the founders of Social Simulation
• Tim Kohler, Professor in the Dept. of Anthropology, Washington State University and Santa Fe

Submission

Reasonably mature papers on all aspects of social simulation will be carefully and anonymously considered – however most papers will (1) describe an individual/agent-based computer simulation (2) exhibit the outcomes of running the simulation in more than a cursory way and (3) make some comparison of these with either: evidence from, or other models of, social phenomena (human, animal or artificial). If you are in doubt as to the relevance of a paper, you may email the Scientific Chair for his opinion (see below), however the decisions about relevance will be made by the Programme Committee. See the conference website for details as to submission procedure.

All the accepted papers will be included in the ESSA 2009 electronic proceedings. The best accepted papers will be published in a separate post-proceedings.

The Venue

The conference will be held at the University of Surrey, Guildford. The Sociology Department there is rated as one of the top centres for sociology research in the UK. It is just outside London in the pretty town of Guilford, near Heathrow Airport and easily accessible from Gatwick.






Organizing Committee

The conference chair is Nigel Gilbert, University of Surrey, UK

Other members of the organising committee are:

• Edmund Chattoe, University of Leicester, UK
• Bruce Edmonds, Manchester Metropolitan University, UK (Scientific Chair)
• Fred Amblard, University of Toulouse, France
• Flaminio Squazzoni, University of Brescia, Italy
• Lu Yang, University of Surrey, UK (Admin)

There is a large and varied program committee representing the top social simulation academics from across the world, covering a large variety of different views and approaches. For a list of PC members see the website.

Contact

For queries about the organisation of the conference, bookings, travel etc. see http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/essa2009/contactUs.php and for the submission of papers, the reviewing process or the programme email: essa2009@cfpm.org

CPM Report 08-199: Bootstrapping Knowledge about Social Phenomena using Simulation Models - Bruce Edmonds

Formidable difficulties face anyone trying to model social phenomena using a formal system, such as a computer program. The differences between formal systems and complex, multi-facetted and meaning-laden social systems are so fundamental that many will criticise any attempt to bridge this gap. Despite this, there are those who are so bullish about the project of social simulation that they appear to believe that simple computer models, that are also useful and reliable indicators of how aspects of society works, are not only possible but within our grasp. This paper seeks to pour water on such optimism but, on the other hand, show that useful computational models might be ‘evolved’. In this way it is disagreeing with both naive positivist and relativistic post-modernist positions. However this will require a greater ‘selective pressure’ against models that are not grounded in evidence, ‘floating models’, and will result in a plethora of complex and context-specific models.

Available at: http://cfpm.org/cpmrep199.html